2030: How Today's Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything
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- Create Date：2022-01-07 08:50:59
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Mauro F. Guillén
- ISBN：1250268192
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Summary
INSTANT WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER！
"Bold， provocative。。。illuminates why we’re having fewer babies， the middle class is stagnating， unemployment is shifting， and new powers are rising。”
—ADAM GRANT
The world is changing drastically before our eyes—will you be prepared for what comes next？ A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends， including analysis on how COVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes。
Once upon a time， the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies。 Babies were plentiful， workers outnumbered retirees， and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars。 Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well。 Printed money was legal tender for all debts， public and private。 We grew up learning how to "play the game，" and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job， started a family， saw our children grow up， and went into retirement with our finances secure。
That world—and those rules—are over。
By 2030， a new reality will take hold， and before you know it:
- There will be more grandparents than grandchildren
- The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined
- The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history
- There will be more global wealth owned by women than men
- There will be more robots than workers
- There will be more computers than human brains
- There will be more currencies than countries
All these trends， currently underway， will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture， the economy， and the world。
According to Mauro F。 Guillen， the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway—and their impacts—is to think laterally。 That is， using “peripheral vision，” or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view。 Rather than focusing on a single trend—climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes， for example—Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point—2030—that will be， for better or worse， the point of no return。
2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of “lateral thinking，” thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences。
"Bold， provocative。。。illuminates why we’re having fewer babies， the middle class is stagnating， unemployment is shifting， and new powers are rising。”
—ADAM GRANT
The world is changing drastically before our eyes—will you be prepared for what comes next？ A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends， including analysis on how COVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes。
Once upon a time， the world was neatly divided into prosperous and backward economies。 Babies were plentiful， workers outnumbered retirees， and people aspiring towards the middle class yearned to own homes and cars。 Companies didn't need to see any further than Europe and the United States to do well。 Printed money was legal tender for all debts， public and private。 We grew up learning how to "play the game，" and we expected the rules to remain the same as we took our first job， started a family， saw our children grow up， and went into retirement with our finances secure。
That world—and those rules—are over。
By 2030， a new reality will take hold， and before you know it:
- There will be more grandparents than grandchildren
- The middle-class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined
- The global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history
- There will be more global wealth owned by women than men
- There will be more robots than workers
- There will be more computers than human brains
- There will be more currencies than countries
All these trends， currently underway， will converge in the year 2030 and change everything you know about culture， the economy， and the world。
According to Mauro F。 Guillen， the only way to truly understand the global transformations underway—and their impacts—is to think laterally。 That is， using “peripheral vision，” or approaching problems creatively and from unorthodox points of view。 Rather than focusing on a single trend—climate-change or the rise of illiberal regimes， for example—Guillen encourages us to consider the dynamic inter-play between a range of forces that will converge on a single tipping point—2030—that will be， for better or worse， the point of no return。
2030 is both a remarkable guide to the coming changes and an exercise in the power of “lateral thinking，” thereby revolutionizing the way you think about cataclysmic change and its consequences。
Reviews
Zena Lina
，
According to this book， several things will be the case in 2030:- We will be working for old people。- The new labourer will be a programmer。- There will be large numbers of African populations who could immigrate to the developed nations to increase the birth rate。- The share economy will become so ubiquitous that no one will own anything anymore。- Women will control more of the wealth。- Cyptocurrency will take over。Ok， so Guillen does not take into account that large numbers of new immigrants w According to this book， several things will be the case in 2030:- We will be working for old people。- The new labourer will be a programmer。- There will be large numbers of African populations who could immigrate to the developed nations to increase the birth rate。- The share economy will become so ubiquitous that no one will own anything anymore。- Women will control more of the wealth。- Cyptocurrency will take over。Ok， so Guillen does not take into account that large numbers of new immigrants will mean a greater burden on the health care and social security system。 Large numbers of these immigrants will eventually become eligible for financial benefits， putting a tax burden on everyone else。 Currently in Australia， immigrants who come to Australia must work for a minimum period of time， usually in farms or doing labour。 In the short term this may be ok for the economy， but in the long term it would not be wise to adopt a more accepting immigration system because most people are lazy。 The argument is essentially， let more immigrants in because there's an aging population in developed nations， then let the immigrants integrate into society。 But there's no way of telling what impact this would have on the economy or if it would even increase birth rates。Also， with the share economy， it has been shown that people are happier if they live in a house that they own。 We will never give up owning houses because land ownership offers financial security。 People don't rent out of choice - if they have a choice， they would prefer to live in their own home。 The idea of someone being able to travel everywhere sounds nice for a short period of time。 That's why people love to go on holidays。 But people who can't stay in one place， like military families， feel rootless and it is bad for child development to never stay in the same home long enough to establish a friendship network that will develop into a career network。 Without financial security and a social network that is facilitated by a steady home base， the very foundation of society as we know it， the family， will collapse。 To be replaced with what？ When people can't rely on their family home， they turn to the government， and the government having that much power is usually a receipt for disaster because government officials can never care about individual people and their needs the way a family member can。 And corporations？ That scenario will be the perfect moneymaking opportunity - something as basic， simple and necessary as a bed to sleep on will be made so expensive that people cannot afford to eat healthy diets。 About wealth -- just after the author said that it will be harder to get a job and that there will be proportionally less middle class （I assume more poor people）， they went on to talk about women having more of the wealth。 As in， we have an aging population and the amount of available workers will be so low that working mothers will become the norm。 The mothers will have to work because rents are so expensive。 Women are less forceful when negotiating pay。 It could be that the larger proportion of wealth will be owned by a massive population of low wage women supporting unemployed men。The few women who do end up as mothers are putting their kids in day cares。 But never the same day cares because they never live in the same area。 They day cares will be able to charge what they want and there will be a high premium for day care centres that screen the workers carefully。 With no permanence there will be no accountability。Honestly， I think that Guillen is just responding to the politically correct trends of our time。 He is writing things that the majority of people want to hear because they have been brainwashed by large international organisations that want to take over the world。 People think this is okay， but they do not think about the repercussions。 A unified world sounds nice on paper， but unification usually results in wars， repression of unique cultures and totalitarianism。 Unification on such a massive scale as the whole world， whether it be through international organisations or simply internet corpotations， must surely be catastrophic。 。。。more
Vita | vita。knygos
，
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 2022-aisiais pirmoji perskaityta knyga nukėlė į 2030-uosius， o tiksliau – į tai， kas galimai mūsų laukia ateityje。Ar įsivaizduojate， jei 2030-aisiais mums nebereikėtų tvarkytis spintos keičiantis metų laikams， nes tas pats drabužis žiemą šildys， o vasarą padės išvengti karščio？🤭Buvo šiek tiek sudėtinga ir vietomis nuobodu skaityti， nes visokie skaičiavimai ir panašūs dalykai nevisai mane domina， tad keletą puslapių praverčiau tik užmesdama akį。🙈Nors grožinę literatūrą skaityti ir apžvelgti šiek 2022-aisiais pirmoji perskaityta knyga nukėlė į 2030-uosius， o tiksliau – į tai， kas galimai mūsų laukia ateityje。Ar įsivaizduojate， jei 2030-aisiais mums nebereikėtų tvarkytis spintos keičiantis metų laikams， nes tas pats drabužis žiemą šildys， o vasarą padės išvengti karščio？🤭Buvo šiek tiek sudėtinga ir vietomis nuobodu skaityti， nes visokie skaičiavimai ir panašūs dalykai nevisai mane domina， tad keletą puslapių praverčiau tik užmesdama akį。🙈Nors grožinę literatūrą skaityti ir apžvelgti šiek tiek lengviau， vis dėlto radau nemažai įdomių faktų ir šioje knygoje。 Skaitydama pamačiau informaciją， kurios užuomazgų turėjau jau besimokydama apie visuomeninę geografiją， tad buvo naudinga dar kartą įsitikinti tam tikrais dalykais。 2030-ieji mūsų laukia po 8-erių metų， bet realybė， kurioje gyvename， pasikeis: •Pagyvenusių žmonių daugiau nei jaunuolių。•Robotai vis dažniau keis darbininkus， kompiuterių intelektas toli pranoks žmogaus smegenis。•Moterys taps turtingesnės už vyrus。•Asmenys， kuriuos šiandien vadiname „mažumomis“， taps dauguma。•Europa， kuri 1950 m。 buvo antroje vietoje pagal gyventojų skaičių， nukris į šeštąją。•Ateities bankininkystei gali nereikėti nei bankų， nei bankininkų。Retkarčiais tikrai priverčiama susimąstyti kaip iš tiesų viskas bus tais 2030-aisiais ir kokių netikėtumų pasaulyje įvyks iki to laiko。 Bet kol kas viskas lieka tik spėliojimais， nes gyvenimas kupinas netikėtumų （vienas iš jų tapo Covid-19 virusas， kuris netikėtai nustebino visą pasaulį ir privertė pakeisti savo kasdienybę） 。。。more
Cristian Chirnogeanu
，
Inovation
Daniela Salonen
，
Such an easy + great perspective of macro trends that will impact the way we work and design for the future。 Reads like a textbook but still very insightful
Natalija O'Connell
，
3* a lot of things felt like "this is how it is now and why" instead of this is what 2030 needs to look like。 And I get the reference to set up some background and then relay the trends but I really thought it would be more solution focused。 Still an insightful read but wouldn't buy as a gift， which is my main marker for if it's really good book or not。 3* a lot of things felt like "this is how it is now and why" instead of this is what 2030 needs to look like。 And I get the reference to set up some background and then relay the trends but I really thought it would be more solution focused。 Still an insightful read but wouldn't buy as a gift， which is my main marker for if it's really good book or not。 。。。more
Brett
，
This review has been hidden because it contains spoilers。 To view it， click here。 Discussses changes under way that will happen around 2030。 Increased technology， more woman in leadership and economically involved。 China will surpass the US and then India and eventually Africa will have the largest middle class。 The world as we know it will be different and companies will cater to countries other than the US。 Interesting at parts for sure。
Dave
，
Dude doesn’t make any bold predictions。 A week bit bookish book- which I annoys me。
Roland
，
2030 is a good book， as gives us interesting views， on what the near future could look like。It is well narrated， has a simple structure， language used is not complicated。 So it an easy book to follow。It is a good book for now， but is getting fastly outdated in many aspects。The future is NOT predictable。 The future is not linear， things that are changing all the time:1。 Often the establishment often fight against changes。 See nationalism。2。 We are human， and we are reacting emotionally and rarely 2030 is a good book， as gives us interesting views， on what the near future could look like。It is well narrated， has a simple structure， language used is not complicated。 So it an easy book to follow。It is a good book for now， but is getting fastly outdated in many aspects。The future is NOT predictable。 The future is not linear， things that are changing all the time:1。 Often the establishment often fight against changes。 See nationalism。2。 We are human， and we are reacting emotionally and rarely rationally。3。 Moreover， blackswans can pop out of nowhere， at anytime。 Clocks are reset and future changes dramatically， without anyone expecting it。Also， there is a few times where the author mixed up causation and Correlation。Ie， in one chapter， Mauro， when said that more people invest in index funds， because， there is more women investor。 When， in other book I read （comon sense in investment）， says that it was because the population got older that there is rise in index funds。。。 And there might be other reasons！Anyway， it is a good book， but to me， it is more science fiction， than a real projection of the future。 。。。more
Goran
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2。5 stars
Brad Bevers
，
I was excited about reading this one， but felt like it didn't deliver as much as I wanted it too。 The book covers 8 trends that will shape the year 2030， and the author predicts how these different trends will shape the near future。 The first chapter was the best， talking about population trends and the impending boom in Africa。 The next chapter on the aging population shift was good as well， but each chapter after that was more and more unconvincing。 I would recommend reading Radical Abundance I was excited about reading this one， but felt like it didn't deliver as much as I wanted it too。 The book covers 8 trends that will shape the year 2030， and the author predicts how these different trends will shape the near future。 The first chapter was the best， talking about population trends and the impending boom in Africa。 The next chapter on the aging population shift was good as well， but each chapter after that was more and more unconvincing。 I would recommend reading Radical Abundance or The Rational Optimist before this book 。 。 。 it will help you to see a more positive spin on many of things this author brings up。 。。。more
Jonathan Li
，
A very good book with some very insightful ideas。 One doesn't have to agree with all of them but the broad range of ideas explored in the book makes it worthwhile reading。 A very good book with some very insightful ideas。 One doesn't have to agree with all of them but the broad range of ideas explored in the book makes it worthwhile reading。 。。。more
Elisabeth
，
I feel like this book is already outdated。 Some interesting ideas there， and I never considered that the market trends will follow the biggest populations， so it will be interesting to see over the coming decade whether the market becomes more focused and targeted at Asian and African Market， if that's how the population growth continues。However it being 2021 and nearly 22 i guess i couldn't quite buy many of the predictions the author thought are very likely to happen。 I feel like this book is already outdated。 Some interesting ideas there， and I never considered that the market trends will follow the biggest populations， so it will be interesting to see over the coming decade whether the market becomes more focused and targeted at Asian and African Market， if that's how the population growth continues。However it being 2021 and nearly 22 i guess i couldn't quite buy many of the predictions the author thought are very likely to happen。 。。。more
Joel
，
The future will be nothing like the past。 The trick is， the future is now。 That is one of the rules of life。 We all know of somebody， a cancer patient or a diabetic in our midst who was fine， healthy， vibrant even – a routine checkup， perhaps a scratchy throat or a headache that won’t go away and BOOM， the diagnosis。 Stage 4， and then they are gone。 There’s something prophetic about that， things don’t move fast until they do。 History slow rolls like a snowball until gravity takes over。 There is The future will be nothing like the past。 The trick is， the future is now。 That is one of the rules of life。 We all know of somebody， a cancer patient or a diabetic in our midst who was fine， healthy， vibrant even – a routine checkup， perhaps a scratchy throat or a headache that won’t go away and BOOM， the diagnosis。 Stage 4， and then they are gone。 There’s something prophetic about that， things don’t move fast until they do。 History slow rolls like a snowball until gravity takes over。 There is no way to stop an idea whose time has come; there is no way to stop the future that has arrived。There is no way to stop the arriving ordeal。That’s what 2030 is about。 Part of my ongoing effort to read， learn about， document and perhaps prepare for a future that will look nothing like the past。 The comfortable past that was not the norm for very long – maybe 70 years – but that is several generations， enough to think it was eternal。 Permanent。 To be sure not for everybody。 The Russians and the Congolese and the Cambodians did not partake of the Pax Americana。 They were at the edges of empire， not inheritors of the bounty。 It was not their Pax after all， so we shouldn’t feel too guilty。Except that now our Pax is over。 Not in a dramatic “The Vandals are sacking Rome” way， no only in the “the sewers are backed up， there is no chicken in the grocery store， my son is now learning about prejudice and pity and not math or science” way。 The places at the fraying edges of empire hic sunt dracones are moving closer to the epicenter – no longer lost over the map in places with names dark and foreboding like Congo and Orinoco， closer now in names we recognize more。 Chicago， Los Angeles。 Tent cities; political deadlock; disappearing species。Aging populations。 Innovation and AI to try and push aside the humans – we really are a messy lot。 I Robot， here we come。 For the betterment of who？ Robots are not sentient。 Or are they？ Robots cannot enjoy art， cuisine， landscape – or can they？ Of course they cannot。 Jobs are vanishing too; who needs them？ A sharing economy – in Venezuela we call these street hawkers or more politely ‘informal economy’ – in the US they are called the “sharing economy”。 That sounds nicer， doesn’t it？ More socialist。 More pleasant。 More equitable。 One car to go around， and pass the hemp。The future will be nothing like the past。 For my little boy。 He doesn’t know what it was like， before the mayhem exacerbated by COVID and the coming anarchy。He still loves life， because we don’t tell him any different。 But we are the minority。 Not the protected minority。 Not the cherished diverse。 We are the only minority allowed to be despised and reviled。 The faithful。 The grateful。 The responsible。 That is who my son will be， after the ordeal has arrived。 He might weather it well – better than most for sure。 But his ordeal it is; and 2030 is a book about what that ordeal might look like。 。。。more
Francesco De Rossi
，
Nel 2030 la società sarà sostanzialmente diversa da quella attuale su vari aspetti。 Il libro identifica questi temi e ne riassume i punti chiavi， a volte in modo semplicistico （non è infatti un libro tecnico e/o di settore）， dando la possibilità al lettore di approfondire。 I temi trattati sono molto interessanti e sono essenziali da conoscere se si vuole parlare di o progettare strategie a lungo termine guardando al futuro。Consigliato a chi non conosce le attuali ricerche e studi sulla società e Nel 2030 la società sarà sostanzialmente diversa da quella attuale su vari aspetti。 Il libro identifica questi temi e ne riassume i punti chiavi， a volte in modo semplicistico （non è infatti un libro tecnico e/o di settore）， dando la possibilità al lettore di approfondire。 I temi trattati sono molto interessanti e sono essenziali da conoscere se si vuole parlare di o progettare strategie a lungo termine guardando al futuro。Consigliato a chi non conosce le attuali ricerche e studi sulla società ed economia futura， in quanto troverà un prezioso riassunto in questo libro 。。。more
Vinod
，
Brilliant insights into the future。
Carter
，
It is intriguing， how these books are crafted。。。 they perpetuate， a form of modern myth， which I fail to understand。。。 The deification of natural forces， expressed immense power， beyond our collective control。。。 even though such collectives were often quite small。。。 The twin forces， of economics and technology are similar。。。 they have a mythological quality， for most individuals， since the analysis of such things is far beyond the ken of even the best individuals。。。 Yet we must try， in order to It is intriguing， how these books are crafted。。。 they perpetuate， a form of modern myth， which I fail to understand。。。 The deification of natural forces， expressed immense power， beyond our collective control。。。 even though such collectives were often quite small。。。 The twin forces， of economics and technology are similar。。。 they have a mythological quality， for most individuals， since the analysis of such things is far beyond the ken of even the best individuals。。。 Yet we must try， in order to safeguard a collective future。。。 where the collective is far larger。。。 。。。more
Jasmine's
，
A study on future events and trends the rise of asia and the down ward trend of the wests power is the main prediction among others。
Jeainny
，
I found this book incredibly useful in charting the course of my career。 Technology and our world both seem to change at breakneck speed。 However， this book anchored me to certain inevitable changes， such as the rising use of blockchain， position of women， and climate change。 As a minority woman， it was especially exciting to read Guillen’s optimistic predictions on the higher ratio of non-white races to white people in America alongside the tremendous economic growth of women by 2030。 Overall， I found this book incredibly useful in charting the course of my career。 Technology and our world both seem to change at breakneck speed。 However， this book anchored me to certain inevitable changes， such as the rising use of blockchain， position of women， and climate change。 As a minority woman， it was especially exciting to read Guillen’s optimistic predictions on the higher ratio of non-white races to white people in America alongside the tremendous economic growth of women by 2030。 Overall， this book was both informative and calmed my fears / anxiety about the future。 。。。more
Hiroko
，
For me， this book was insightful。 Although the theory may be not original， I enjoyed to think about how I should face the era of after COVID till 2030。
Daniel
，
A very good book about future。 Very well documented by statistics about people and trends
Mel
，
Really interesting points。 Interesting read and not just doom and gloom， it's actually pretty hopeful and positive。 Really interesting points。 Interesting read and not just doom and gloom， it's actually pretty hopeful and positive。 。。。more
David
，
Attempts to learn from the past to apply current trends to the future。 Some interesting theories but also feels like I’ve heard a lot of this before。
Daria
，
Great read。 I picked up this book because I'm interested in long term investments and thought it would help inform some areas to look into and consider。 Thought it was well written and informative。 It even had a spot script that covered the current pandemic。 Would recommend。 Great read。 I picked up this book because I'm interested in long term investments and thought it would help inform some areas to look into and consider。 Thought it was well written and informative。 It even had a spot script that covered the current pandemic。 Would recommend。 。。。more
Terri ducay
，
After watching an Aspen Institue webinar featuring the author discuss this book， I was intrigued， as his observations about the future were fresh。 The first third of the book stays true to my observations， but the middle becomes muddled with 'know' issues， that is to say， if you read the WSJ， HR， or NYT's regularly。It does brighten up a bit towards the end when cryptocurrency is explored and how the blockchains process will not only impact money but possibly keep track of everything， from laws t After watching an Aspen Institue webinar featuring the author discuss this book， I was intrigued， as his observations about the future were fresh。 The first third of the book stays true to my observations， but the middle becomes muddled with 'know' issues， that is to say， if you read the WSJ， HR， or NYT's regularly。It does brighten up a bit towards the end when cryptocurrency is explored and how the blockchains process will not only impact money but possibly keep track of everything， from laws to ownership of all types of items。 。。。more
Cameron
，
Somewhat interesting， but nothing particularly novel。 Also rather offensive in the generalisation of millenials and having a boomer tell them what they want。 Obviously millenials prefer to to have unstable work and be exploited in the gig economy。。。 It's so hip and trendy！！ *sarcasm alert* Somewhat interesting， but nothing particularly novel。 Also rather offensive in the generalisation of millenials and having a boomer tell them what they want。 Obviously millenials prefer to to have unstable work and be exploited in the gig economy。。。 It's so hip and trendy！！ *sarcasm alert* 。。。more
Teresa
，
Very interesting and future perspectives。 Table of contentsTitleCopyrightContentsSome Facts and FiguresIntroduction: The Clock Is Ticking1: Follow the Babies2: Gray Is the New Black3: Keeping Up with the Singhs and the Wangs4: Second Sex No More？5: Cities Drown First6: More Cellphones than Toilets7: Imagine No Possessions8: More Currencies than CountriesConclusion: Lateral Tips and Tricks to Survive 2030PostscriptAcknowledgmentsSources
Jon Gunnar
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Economical book， fun facts but becomes dry and way too long。
MARGO
，
er
Daniel
，
well researched and interesting outlooks for the future。
John Strohm
，